Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 23.236067 25.263509 27.446213 29.980870 32.855988 36.030994 39.823071
2026-02-08 19.884119 22.642551 25.815573 29.775221 34.640954 40.501400 48.214025
2026-02-15 17.507941 20.646020 24.444438 29.464699 36.057367 44.618471 56.929007
2026-02-22 15.764013 19.109955 23.328721 29.175012 37.299532 48.576724 66.181795
2026-03-01 14.448709 17.918525 22.444932 28.976538 38.516173 52.583853 76.325982
2026-03-08 13.361839 16.887582 21.620518 28.691587 39.481038 56.289740 86.826220
2026-03-15 12.878200 16.601258 21.752067 29.740054 42.529719 63.734902 105.768727
2026-03-22 12.108065 15.838322 21.116486 29.537259 43.533339 67.923205 119.916496
2026-03-29 11.487351 15.230177 20.637857 29.498694 44.764329 72.703468 136.866662
2026-04-05 11.039252 14.831992 20.426689 29.844107 46.678059 79.122438 159.982616
2026-04-12 10.537332 14.314403 19.983198 29.744827 47.756130 84.088490 181.703055
2026-04-19 10.049613 13.783712 19.473733 29.471726 48.454053 88.388734 203.689158
2026-04-26 9.636272 13.347775 19.092610 29.401691 49.576044 93.994376 233.073805
2026-05-03 9.223912 12.888918 18.641577 29.162539 50.329734 98.961833 263.774621
2026-05-10 8.831761 12.438930 18.173041 28.844124 50.872946 103.572080 296.698882
2026-05-17 8.477675 12.029475 17.743665 28.555700 51.437665 108.404851 334.655516
2026-05-24 8.167971 11.674362 17.382010 28.359966 52.177610 113.935013 381.129665
2026-05-31 7.867943 11.319248 16.997111 28.082107 52.690117 118.988307 431.042785
2026-06-07 7.797010 11.335073 17.255742 29.098666 56.403487 134.898118 564.850995
2026-06-14 7.543207 11.033149 16.931912 28.901696 57.134156 141.612289 652.950649
2026-06-21 7.329607 10.788519 16.695757 28.864170 58.264846 150.132092 773.410287
2026-06-28 7.181826 10.648093 16.639344 29.199144 60.422658 163.244016 972.046960
2026-07-05 6.983898 10.412403 16.393273 29.102832 61.413321 172.401209 1164.271086